answer:Welcome to Fluther. Your hypothesis can be easily checked by direct observation. That is, list the districts that voted for McCain, then filter out those which already had a Republican Representative. You’ll have a list of all districts who voted for McCain and had previously had a Democratic Representative. All you need to do then is re-examine how those districts voted in the Congressional election and you’ll know whether your hypothesis is correct or not. First of all, I wonder how large your primary data set will be. How many districts voted for John McCain and had previously had non-Democratic Congressional representation? EDIT: First of all, I wonder how large your primary data set will be. How many districts voted for John McCain and had previously had Democratic Congressional representation? It doesn’t seem (to me) to be a particularly valid study of anything. It’s like suggesting a “hypothesis” that people who eat at a particular restaurant normally order edamame as an appetizer when they order the crunchy tuna rolls as an entrée. Well, either they do or they don’t. You count the orders of each and see if it’s true or not. Not much of a study, I think.