The Northern States would have been the United States of America, while the Southern states would have been independent states, like individual countries. Slavery would have ended by about 1900 (1920, at the latest,) and people would have still been needed to pick cotton up into the 1950’s, when the first successful mechanical cotton picker was invented. Obama might have been elected, had his birth come about, but there is no way to say for sure. At some point a Black man/woman would have been elected in the north, that much can be said.